In this post I’m going to describe the basic process to compute sport bets, determine the favorite and chose a winner.
In other words, understand the bets casino offers and use them to our favor.
Compute an sport bet not only allow us to know if the casino payouts are correct or not, it also help us to determine the probability to win, to lose or draw. In this way, in case of make a bet, there are more chances to get profits.
To show the process, a box fight is presented first, then an example with soccer is analyzed.
Example one: Pacquiao Vs. Bradley 3.
Step one: search for statics of each fighter. There are a lot of webs dedicated to sports statics. Even in Wikipedia you can find some information. Data can include the last season, the whole history or just the last year.
For this example I’m going to use data from the whole history of the fighters. We have: Pacquiao had 65 fights (57 victories, 2 draws, 6 losses) and Bradley had 35 fights (33 victories, 1 draws, 1 losses)
Step two: sum the total fight of both fighters (65+35=100).
Step three: sum Pacquiao’s victories and Bradley’s losses (57+1=58), then divide by the result of step two (58/100=0.58). That 0.58 is the probability for Pacquiao to win. In percentage it is 58%.
Step four: To compute Bradley’s probability it is necessary to perform a subtraction. One minus the result of step three (1-0.58=0.42). Which means the probability for Bradley to win is 42%.
Step five: Now compute the draw probability. Sum the draw fights of each fighter: Pacquiao (2) + Bradley (1)=3. Divide this result by the total fights of step one. (3/100=0.03). This is a 3% probabilities of draw.
Step six: Compute the payout of each fighter and draw. The payouts are obtained by inverting the probability of win. For Pacquiao (1/0.58=1.7), For Bradley (1/0.42=2.38), and draw (1/0.0.3=33.33).
From the above analysis it can be concluded that Pacquiao has 58% of probability to win versus 42% that Bradley has. The draw is not very probable since it is only a 3%.
Casino should pay 1.7 for Pacquiao, 2.38 for Bradley and 33.3 for draw.
Finally, these results have to be compared with casino payouts.
The day of the fight, casino offered 1.5 for Pacquiao, 1.4 for Bradley and 21 for the draw. It is very common that casinos pay less than they should pay, that is its business.
However, sometimes casinos get wrong calculations. For that reason, computing sports bets allow getting more opportunities to win a bet. Personally, I just bet when I compute inferior payouts than ones casino is offering.
Now an example with a soccer match: Barcelona Vs. Sevilla.
Step one: Barcelona (victories: 29, draws:4, losses 5, total:38) and Sevilla (victories: 14, draws:10, losses 14, total:38)
Step three:Barcelana’s victories + Sevilla’s losses (29+14=43). Divided by the result of step two (43/76=0,57). The probability for Barcelona to win is 57%.
Step four: One minus the result of step trhee (1-0,57=0,43). The probability for Sevilla to win is 43%.
Step five: The draw. Sum of draws (4+10=14), and divided by the total matches (14/76=0,18). The probabilty for the draw is 18%.
step six: Barcelona payouts (1/0,57=1,8), Sevilla (1/0,43=2,3), and draw (1/0,18=5,4). In this case the draw is more probable than in a box figth.
Casino was paying 1,3 for Barcelona, 6,25 for the draw and 9,25 for Sevilla. It can be seen that Sevilla and draw have very convenient payouts. This could be understood as a good chance to bet. However, Barcelona has more chances to win.
While computing a bet, a lot of scenarios can be found:
1) Casino payouts are very low compared with the calculated ones.
2) Casino payouts higher that the calculated ones, but with low probability to win.
3) Casino payouts are well payed for the favorite.
4) The favorite I calculated is different than the one from the casino payouts.
Bet or not will depend on each person and his/her knowledge about the sport.
Check out this youtube video where I compute UFC odds and payouts:
To compute an sport bets it is only necessary to have statistic data (victories, draws and losses). The results should be compare with casino payouts to decide if it worth bet or not. I have already created a web application to do this process automatically.